Now for Something Really Off-topic

Onwards and upwards!

 

Yes, I am proud to say that I know next to nothing beyond the rudiments of the fundamentals.... for the speculator simply follows the trend that the irrational market sets.... and jumps out when every man and his dog is jumping in. Ship of fools that we are. This is the 'fundamentals' of market psychology.

And for those with raised eyebrow and that sneer at you the term of abuse 'speculator' [yes, some colleagues have done so] let them consider that they may be neglecting their duty to protect themselves [and their family] if they didn't get involved in some speculative asset class or another. Thanks to the crazy 'policy' of central banks, the currency we all work so hard for can be inflated away... they actually are when you compare wages with the inflation in property prices and markets. Bubbles bubbles everywhere.

 

You sold your Bitcoin?

 

Beware of money illusion [the focus on the number]. You want to be long when you are in a parabolic spike. There is no telling how high this could go this month. The trend is your friend.

 

Ok, so you have obviously taken some good profits.

But you need to ask yourself where this thing could go to. You could buy back in if you think it will continue to go parabolic. Or you could sit back, let it spike, and then let it consolidate.

However, fortunes have been lost [historically speaking] by people sitting on the sidelines waiting for the dip that never comes. Say it spikes, on the basis of the above chart to 40,000 or so. And then corrects for a year to 20,000. You could buy again then, but it would have been better to have held.

 

Let me add, I came to the party relatively late. I heard a bit of background noise about Bitcoin over the past few years. But never focused on it until a couple of weeks ago. I pulled up a long term log chart, took one look, and piled in long.

I'd also add, I had the gumption to do this as learnt a bit about markets when I got involved in the gold bull market.

So I was buying at the heady heights of 10,000 and 11,0000, simply to establish a long position.

I'd also add that I have put enough skin in the game for it to hurt a little if the price collapses. But the risk/ reward ratio warrants this. Never bet the farm, but I think you should be putting 10% or 20% of your liquid worth into it here. Just my 2 cents worth... no wait now my 10 cents worth.

 

To get the right perspective, you need to take a look at the long term LOG chart [as posted above]. Could spike to anywhere here... then no doubt consolidate... but most probably at higher levels.

 

Ok... good for you, you took some decent profits. But I think you also want to keep a decent long/ hold position at the same time.

 

Let the charts paint the picture. The problem is people lack the imagination.

 

Long term.

A spike off the charts is possible... to be followed by a possible massive correction... also off the charts:

 

Now short term.

Been watching some professional trader videos on YouTube. they are still looking at day/ week/ month charts. Surely, in a parabolic vertical move upward, they should be concerning themselves with the hourly charts. For all the trading is compressed into that time slot.

Notice how these big moves up 'back and fill', which suggests yet another breakout. If it goes up maaaassively, with everyone piling in, without a 'back and fill' period, that might suggest the top: